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The trends that matter: Find out the 20/1 each-way steal who can upset the odds in the Summer Plate

We've crunched 10 years worth of trends to figure out which horse could spring a surprise in the Summer Plate, plus why you can't get away from Curvy in the Irish Oaks

by Josh Powell | July 17, 2015

The yo-yo. Pogs. Pokemon cards. Here in Power Tower we love a good trend.

And although owning at least 17 Diglets and a super rare Mew isn’t going to help us meet women, this love of trends might just pocket us a few quid on Saturday’s racing from Market Rasen and the Curragh. We’ve crunched the last 10 year’s worth of stats to figure out what makes a winner in the Summer Plate and the Irish Oaks, in an attempt to pluck out the victor from this year’s field.

The Summer Plate, Market Rasen 3.30pm

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Coming in nicely off a weight of just 10-9 is Bar De Ligne. The French nine-year-old defied top weight to win a Class 3 chase around this course last month and is somewhat of a specialist around Market Rasen. All three of his wins over fences have come at the track and he has made the frame in four of his six runs around here. A winner over the distance on good ground and good-to-soft ground means that Bar De Ligne should be right at home on Saturday afternoon.

A minor concern is the step up in Class. He’s a horse who hasn’t made the frame in seven attempts at Class 2 and this is another step above that. However the trends suggest previous Class 1 winners don’t pick up the victory in the Summer Plate, and you’re better off looking for an unexposed type who has escaped the grip of the handicapper. At odds of 20/1, on a course he loves and with very little to carry, Bar De Ligne might just make the frame and put a few pennies in our back pocket.

The Irish Oaks, The Curragh, 5.50pm

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It might be a slightly less spectacular tip than in the Summer Plate, but it’s hard to get away from the 2/1 favourite Curvy. The filly has four wins on the bounce including a Grade 2 victory in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out. She posted an RPR of 108 on that occasion which means she just misses out on hitting every trend in the box, although she took the scalp of Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Pleasach in that race which is a hugely promising marker.

A winner at the course, unbeaten over a mile-and-a-quarter and a mile-and-a-half, and she’s won on yielding ground. If it dries out even more even better, but Curvy looks fiercely hard to oppose.

If you are looking elsewhere, it might be worth taking a chance on Covert Love each-way. She is a very promising filly who put in her best performance to make all and gamely win at Newcastle last month. Pat Smullen takes the ride and she has a great chance of making the frame at odds of 7/1.

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