Most of the greatest boxing matches don’t involve the greatest fighters. Which is just as well, because this weekend it’s the turn of the untested, out of form and soft around the whiskers.
2012 Olympic champion Luke Campbell and his childhood rival Tommy Coyle battle it out to be the king of Hull and on the same card Brian Rose will attempt to get revenge on Carson Jones for a first round KO earlier this year. Providing the entertainment in New York is another former title-holder Danny Garcia and home-town favourite Paulie Malignaggi.
The Rumble on the Humber is a big billing for a domestic bout in east Yorkshire but local lightweights Campbell and Coyle are expecting to be fighting in front of an audience of 20,000 fans in Hull this Saturday. This one is set to be explosive.
Campbell (11-0, 9 KOs) is the elegant but ruthless amateur boxing prodigy on his way to professional greatness. The bookies’ baby faced favourite has never been chin-checked, so if Campbell takes one flush his reaction will be interesting.
Two years younger, but looking twenty years older, Coyle (21-2, 10 KOs) has more than a hint of the short man syndrome about him. The overshadowed underdog’s career has literally had been full of ups and downs. In one fight last year, against average Argentine Daniel Eduardo Brizuela, both men kissed the canvas four times before Brizuela eventually quit in the 12th round.
The man they call ‘Boom Boom’ has only been stopped once but Campbell is in a league above and it is hard to see Coyle staying out of trouble for 12 rounds. Trying to pick when the fight will end is trying to be too clever, so take the 2/5 for Campbell to win by KO.
Campbell – age 27, height 5’9”, reach 71”, KO ratio 82%. Last fight: (W) vs Aboubeker Bechelaghem (3th round TKO).
2012 Olympic gold medalist and unbeaten as pro. Stopped last five opponents.
Coyle – age 25, height N/A, reach N/A, KO ratio 43%. Last fight: (W) vs Martin Gethin (Retired).
Won by KO in four of last five fights. Lost twice, once by knockout.
There can’t be many people in boxing who need a victory more than fellow British lightweight Burns (37-5-1, 11 KOs). Somebody gave the Scotsman some seriously bad advice and, despite several seasons at the top, he declared bankruptcy this year. And that’s on top of his awful form of one win in five.
— BoxingNews&Views (@BoxingNAV) July 29, 2015
Since 2013, when Burns was world champion, he had his jaw broken but survived to secure a dubious draw, he lost his world title, lost against an unknown Montenegrin, won on points against a useless European and tried and failed fighting at light welterweight.
Prince Ofotsu (15-4, 11 Kos) could actually be a Ghanaian prince for all anybody knows and the one recognisable name on the Prince’s record, Richard Commey, stopped him in the 8th round. Burns will dominate but his paltry KO ratio of 26% means that the best bet is the 11/8 for the Scot to win on points.
Burns – age 32, height 5’10”, reach 70”, KO ratio 26%. Last fight: (L) vs Omar Figueroa Jr (Unanimous decision). Only one win in last five fights and only two KO wins in last four years.
Ofotsu – age N/A, height N/A, reach N/A, KO ratio 58%. Last fight: (L) vs Richard Commey (8th round TKO). Lost last fight in December 2013 and hasn’t been in the ring since. Never had a fight outside of Ghana.
At the opposite end of the experience spectrum is Blackpool’s Brian Rose (26-3-1, 8 KOs). Rose challenged for a world title in 2014 but champion Demetrius Andrade beat him up in seven rounds. After an easy comeback win Rose met American Carson Jones (37-10-3, 27 KOs) in February this year but was stopped inside the first round.
— Matchroom Boxing (@MatchroomBoxing) July 30, 2015
Rose was a big favourite in that fight and he looked a class above for the first two minutes, but as soon as Jones landed the man from Blackpool was in a world of trouble. It shouldn’t have been a huge surprise as the Brit has been sheltered from heavy hitters his whole career – before facing Jones, Rose had only challenged four opponents who had more than 10 KOs on their records.
Jones on the other hand is tough, with only one stoppage loss in last nine years, and Rose is a powder-puncher with a KO ratio of 27%. 12 rounds is a long time for Rose to be on the defensive, so back the Yank at 11/4 to win by KO.
Rose – age 30, height 6’0”, reach N/A, KO ratio 27%. Last fight: (L) vs Carson Jones (1st round TKO). Only one win in last three fights and all three defeats have been by KO.
Carson – age 28, height 5’10”, reach 72′, KO ratio 52%. Last fight: (W) vs Brian Rose (1st round TKO) Only one defeat in last five fights. Faced Kell Brook twice, losing the first time by mixed decision and stopped in the 8th round on the second occasion.
Danny Garcia (30-0, 17 KOs) is an unbeaten unified world champion but he is still failing to be great. The man they call ‘Swift’ has only one KO win his last five fights, against a boxer who is mediocre at best, and the decision results he has edged have been closer than conjoined twins.
‘Magic Man’ Malignaggi (33-6, 7 KOs) has spent more time in the commentary box than in the ring in the past 20 months, with his only performance resulting in a fourth round KO defeat to Shawn Porter. The New Yorker is tenacious but he has also been stopped by Amir Khan and Ricky Hatton.
With only seven KO wins in a 39 fight career the feather-fisted Malignaggi will have trouble deterring his opponent. Garcia is fighting at a higher weight limit than in his recent bouts and that should give him the energy to go after the stoppage win, so a price of 6/4 seems well worth a bet.
If you fancy a longer shot look for the 11/4 for Garcia to win in rounds 7-12.
Garcia – age 27, height 5’8.5”, reach 68.5”, KO ratio 57%. Last fight: (W) vs Lamont Peterson (Mixed decision).
Unbeaten but unimpressive in last three fights. Only one KO win in last five fights. Still the super lightweight world champion.
Malignaggi – age 35, height 5’8”, reach 70”, KO ratio 18%. Last fight: (L) vs Shawn Porter (4th round TKO).
Lost two of last three fights and hasn’t fought in over a year. Former super lightweight and welterweight world champion.