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PaddyPower fantasy football scout – 2015/16

We've crunched the numbers to (hopefully) enable you to wipe the floor with the competition!

by Ben | August 25, 2015

In an effort to help you make the best decisions for your Fantasy Football team, the stat nerds here at Paddy Power have crunched the numbers to help you make some shrewd signings.

We have two interactive tables for you, which will let you look at the the form of every Premier League team in the last three matches, and also the form of each team’s next three opponents.

Before we get to that, here’s what the numbers are telling us so far…

Week 4

A weekend of upsets:

Man City maintained their 100% record, but for many of their supposed challengers for the title, it was a weekend to forget.  The previously unbreached defense of Liverpool was ripped apart by West Ham, whereas Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea side have looked all at sea with problems throughout the side and among backroom staff.   Arsenal managed to pick up an unconvincing win on the road at 10-man Newcastle, whereas new boys Bournemouth and early pace-setters Leicester City played out an entertaining 1-1 draw on the coast.

Man City still look to be the form team, with their 100% record, with Swansea and Arsenal have both won two of their last three and drawn the other.  At the other end of the table, Villa and Newcastle both boast just one point from their last three Premier League matches.

So what does the future hold, and where is the Fantasy Football value?

Here’s a stat bombshell for you:  On current form, over the 3 upcoming matches, the stats point to West Brom as having the easiest run of fixtures, with matches against Southampton, Aston Villa and Everton.  Those three sides have taken an average of 11% of all points available to them over their last three games so they all look pretty rusty, and bolstering your Fantasy Football side with a few Baggies could be a solid strategy.

If you are looking for a solid keeper, or defenders for your team, Swansea, Chelsea and Man Utd are playing a trio of teams who have scored the fewest number of goals so far this season.  Swansea in particular are facing games against goal-shy Watford, Everton and Southampton – three teams who have scored just 5 goals between them in their last three games.

At the other end of the pitch, Bournemouth and Newcastle are playing teams with the leakiest defenses on current form, so their strikers might be able to cash in.  Bournemouth’s next three opponents (Norwich, Sunderland and Stoke) have let in a total of 15 goals between them in their three games to date and have failed to keep a single clean sheet between them.  Newcastle’s opponents, West Ham, Watford and Chelsea have also conceded 15 goals between them in their last three games, but Chelsea are due an upturn in form, and Watford have looked strong defensively at times.  Once again, with 4 goals in his last two games Cherries striker Callum Wilson looks excellent value to cash in again in the next few rounds of matches.

…And who are the teams you should you avoid?

Tottenham, Stoke and Southampton appear, on recent form at least, to have a difficult set of matches coming up.  Spurs play (ahem) Sunderland, Palace and Man City, Stoke play Arsenal, Leicester and Bournemouth and Southampton face matches against West Brom, Man Utd and Swansea.

Defenders and keepers to avoid seems to be anyone from Norwich and Spurs, and despite not having conceded to date, Man City’s next three opponents (Palace, West Ham and Tottenham) have scored a whopping 15 goals between them in their last three games.  Tottenham in particular might be worth avoiding as their next three opponents, Sunderland, Palace and Man City have all managed to score in each one of their last three games.

Crystal palace strikers appear to face an uphill challenge in their next three matches, as the Eagles face Man City, Tottenham and Watford.  Between them those side have kept 6 clean sheets in their most recent 9 games – obviously City are 3/3, but Spurs have kept one clean sheet and Watford two in their last three games.


So how did we come to those conclusions?
Here are the interactive tables which can help you too…

Form in the last three matches

ClubGoals forGoals againstFailed to scoreClean sheets keptForm
Arsenal842367%
A. Villa59207%
B'mouth990147%
Chelsea990147%
C. Palace542160%
Everton653253%
Leicester9110040%
Liverpool592133%
Man City760360%
Man Utd1051267%
Newcastle373113%
Norwich781040%
So'ton842353%
Stoke572033%
Sunderland393013%
Swansea462133%
Tottenham721373%
Watford343247%
West Brom661347%
West Ham1270267%
  • (Goals for) – How many goals they have scored in their last three games
  • (Goals against) – How many goals they have let in during their last three games
  • (Failed to score) – How many times they have drawn a blank in their last three games
  • (Clean sheets kept) – How many times they have shut out the opposition in their last three games
  • (Form) – What percentage of possible points they have taken from their last three matches

Secondly, we’ve also looked at each team’s next three opponents, and taken a look at how they have performed over their previous three games.

Form of the next three opponents

ClubGoals forGoals againstFailed to scoreClean sheets keptForm
Arsenal19147656%
A. Villa18224238%
B'mouth17124860%
Chelsea25204542%
C. Palace27241551%
Everton23185656%
Leicester20165451%
Liverpool21116860%
Man City22214442%
Man Utd21155860%
Newcastle17234338%
Norwich18244433%
So'ton23292240%
Stoke12197329%
Sunderland21204642%
Swansea17185338%
Tottenham18244338%
Watford22204449%
West Brom15216138%
West Ham17225240%
  • (Goals for) – Total number of goals their next three opponents have scored in their last three games.
  • (Goals against) – Total number of goals their next three opponents have let in during their last three games .
  • (Failed to score) – How many times their next three opponents have drawn a blank in their last three games .
  • (Clean sheets kept) – How many times their next three opponents have shut out the opposition in their last three games 
  • (Form) – What percentage of possible points they have taken from their last three matches

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