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Colm O’Rourke: You’ll be cursing your luck if you don’t back Mayo to beat the Dubs in this 7/2 double

A 7/2 double with Mayo to triumph over Dublin and Kildare to win the minor game is where Meath legend and TV analyst Colm O'Rourke reckons there's money to be made in Sunday's game

by Paddy Power | August 28, 2015

It’s a big weekend for both Dublin and Mayo to see who’ll face Kerry in the All-Ireland final.

Dublin are long odds on at 4/7 will have learned that they can’t go on the all-out attack for the whole game against Mayo like they did against Donegal last year.

Dublin v Kildare (pic: Inpho)

The big holes that Donegal punched in their defence last year seems to have been fixed by Cian O’Sullivan acting as a permanent sweeper in front of their full back line. That’s allowed Jack McCaffrey to push forward.

But unlike last year when everyone bombed forward – I can’t see the Dubs management allowing that to happen again.

Galway_Mayo

It’s well documented that Mayo haven’t won an All Ireland since 1951 but as I’ve said before:

I don’t believe in curses, I don’t believe in hard-luck stories – they just haven’t been good enough when it matters.

There’s huge public sympathy towards Mayo’s plight and most neutrals would sooner see them upset the Dubs and go onto win it rather than a hugely attractive box-office game like Dublin v Kerry. But sympathy wins no games.

Mayo have shown that they are able to beat all the big teams but the problem is that they haven’t been able to do it at the right time. But I think their time will come on Sunday.

Bet they win …

They should really have beaten Kerry in the first game of the semi-final last year and if Shane Enright had’ve been sent off in the second game in Limerick like he should have been – they would probably have won there also.

They seem to be improving as the Championship progresses and I think Mayo are a great bet bet to win the game at 15/8. I fancy that but I’ll also cover the handicap with Mayo (+2) at evens as it could be a close-run thing.

GAA-FGS-Special-2015-1430-x-194

First goalscorer market:

The obvious candidates are Bernard Brogan (Dublin @ 11/2) and Aidan O’Shea (Mayo @ 13/2) while the penalty takers Dean Rock (Dublin) or Cillian O’Connor (Mayo) are worth considering.

O’Shea is a colusus and you can be sure Mayo will be sending it in high to him to catch one and try to out-muscle the Dubs’ defence.

He’s been on Facebook dressed as Superman this week and he’ll need to be if Mayo are going to win. But O Shea (below) looks a bit of value to get the first goal.

blog_mayo_oshea

My point is ..

It should be a fairly free-scoring game although weather conditions do have an effect on these things. If it’s a reasonable day on Sunday I’d expect the scoring would come in at under 38.5 points @ 5/6 in the total points market.

Kildare v Tipperary

I advised people to back Kildare in the Minor Leinster Final and they look another good bet against Tipperary @ 8/13 in the win-draw-win market.

But if you want a bit of value you could try the Lilywhites to win by 4-6 points and that’s a value play at 4/1.

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