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We’ve crunched the stats and here’s why Andy Murray won’t win the US Open

Novak Djokovic looks like the solid favourite to win at the US Open, but this 150/1 shout might upset him..

by Paddy Power | August 30, 2015

The US Open commences on Monday and all of England will be cheering on Andy Murray until he gets knocked out and everyone talks about how Scotland’s Andy Murray just can’t quite beat the top seeds consistently.

For the next couple of weeks in between the football and that countdown to seeing that girl in the red jumper that gets on the bus at the same stop every Friday at seven we will all be glued to our screens to see Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal et al strut their stuff on the court.

Most neutrals will be hoping for a Federer win simply because he makes people feel things only Taylor Swift can. Andy Murray is another crowd favourite, but we’ve crunched the stats and there seems to be only one winner. Novak Djokovic has been in fantastic form so far this season and two runner up’s in the last three years will have him determined to make it three majors from four for the year.

Murray consistently hits quarter-finals in Grand Slams (he’s made the quarter-final in all the majors he’s taken part in since 2011), but he hasn’t reached the final of the US Open since he won it in 2012. The stats say he might have to wait a little longer to take back his title. We know how much you hate maths, but, as usual, we’re here to save the day and tell you who the best options are and who to steer clear of.

Just a quick note we only used the top 30 seeded players because:

  1. The top 30 seeds aren’t the top 30 in the betting. Some of the seeds will be higher or lower on the betting charts.
  2. There has only ever been one unseeded winner of the US Open and that was in 1994.
  3. 30 people was a lot and we really don’t want to have to go through anymore. You can do it.

Wimbledon-Novak-Djokovic-slider

We’ve looked at the the 2015 win % versus career %, 2015 win % on hard court versus career win % on hard court and the same for win % versus the top 10 players for 2015 and careers. The best players to back are the guys who are above their average for their careers. In that group we have: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka.

Djokovic has been the standout man according to the stats. A 10% increase in the career wins from 82% to 92% and more importantly an increase of 17% against the top 10 players shows how dominant he’s been this year. Compare that to Rafa Nadal who has dropped below all of his averages in 2015. He did a Fernando Torres. Exceptional early in his career and now he just has memories. Bit of a pity that.

Looking at Andy Murray, his stats don’t inspire confidence that he’s going to topple Djokovic. A four percent increase on his wins against the top 10 (up to 57%) and a two percent increase on hard court this year (up to 80%) aren’t near the level of Djokovic.

Roger-Federer-840

The most beautiful sportsman in the world alongside Graziano Pelle and Olivier Giroud has had a good 2015 and at 4/1 he should be worth a flutter. His averages on hard court for 2015 has hit 91% up eight percent. After losing a classic of a match against Djokovic the 34 year old Swiss man will be looking for revenge. If he wins the Open he’ll become the fifth oldest major winner ever.

Now here’s where we go for the money. Stan Wawrinka at 14/1 has had a brilliant personal 2015. If you exclude Nick Kyrgios’s revelations about his girlfriend. He won the French Open and his personal stats have sky rocketed. His stats against the top 10 has nearly doubled and the other two groups have gone up 13 and 14% respectively. After that little kerfuffle with Nick Kyrgios this will be a big tournament for Wawrinka.

But what about the outsiders you ask? They’ve not got a hope I say. Marin Cilic won the US Open last year, but this year he’s only gotten as far as a quarter-final. Richard Gasquet made it to the semi-final at Wimbledon and lost to Djokovic in the fourth round of the French Open. 150/1 if you really want to make some dosh.

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