There aren’t likely to be many people rushing for their phone to back Ireland at 1/33 to beat Gibraltar on Friday night. The super skinny odds are a fair reflection in the gulf in class between the two sides, but they’re odds that are hardly going to make you rich in a hurry. Unfortunately these lop-sided fixtures are frequent during the International breaks, and can muck up your punting pleasure.
Luckily that isn’t the case on the Paddy Power Blog. not only did we run through a tempting 55/1 accumulator for you which takes advantage of Paddy Power’s Acca Insurance offer, but we’ve also crunched some serious maths skills to bring you a 7/1 punt in Ireland’s game with Gibraltar.
The 7/1 shot we fancy is the correct score of Gibraltar 0-6 Ireland. While a free-scoring, dynamic, attacking Irish side is rarer than unicorn piss, we’re all over this punt after performing some deadly equations.
- If you want to side with us, you can get the latest odds on a 6-0 Irish win here: Desktop | Mobile
Or if you want to find out how we got to that prediction, brace yourself for some top maths and read on!
Firstly we worked out how many goals each team has scored, and the average goals scored in Group D. For the record, Ireland have scored 12 and Gibraltar have scored just the one, while the average side in Group D has scored 10.83. That would make the Boys in Green 11 per cent stronger going forward than the average Group D team, as Ireland’s goals (12) divided by the average goals (10.83) leaves you with 1.11. Gibraltar, unsurprisingly, are 91 per cent weaker than the average Group D side, as Gibraltar’s goals (1) divided by the average goals (10.83) leaves you with 0.09.
Department of Defence
Based on the same formula as Goals Galore, we then worked out how strong both sides were defensively. Spoiler alert: Gibraltar are about as defensively tough as a rich tea biscuit in a piping hot brew. Gibraltar have conceded a whopping 34 goals, making them 214 per cent weaker at the back than the other five sides, as Gibraltar’s goals conceded (34) divided by the average goals conceded (10.83) gives you 3.14. Ireland are significantly stronger defensively which should put a huge smile on John O’Shea’s cheeky chops. Ireland’s goals conceded (5) divided by the average goals conceded (10.83) leaves you with 0.46, making Martin O’Neill’s men 54 per cent stronger than the average Group D side.
Goals Per Game
Using these numbers we can work out the average number of goals Ireland would score against Gibraltar and vice versa. To do that you multiply Ireland’s attacking strength (1.11) by the average goals scored/conceded per game (1.81) by Gibraltar’s attacking strength (3.14). For those of you without an abacus, that gives you 6.28. Doing the same for Gibraltar (0.09 x 1.81 x 0.46) leaves you with 0.08.
That would suggest that on average Ireland would score 6.28 goals against Gibraltar. However there isn’t such a thing as 0.28 of a goal and the average can be seen as a little misleading as it is a measure which has an unlimited amount of time.
Vive La France
To give us a more accurate measurement we’re applying a probability distribution that was developed by Frenchman Simeon Poisson. You can read more about it here if you want to get your maths nerd on, but essentially this gives you the likelihood of an event happening in a fixed interval of time – in this instance the number of goals in one match.
That gave us the following results.
- There is a 92.6 per cent chance that Gibraltar will score no goals against Ireland, a 7.1 per cent chance they’ll score one, and a very slim 0.3 per cent chance they’ll score twice.
- As for the Boys in Green there is a 16 per cent chance they’ll score six, a 15.3 per cent chance they’ll score five, and a 14.3 per cent chance they’ll score seven. There’s even a 1.5 per cent chance that the Irish could score 12.
The Main Event
By simply multiplying the likelihood of each number of goals being scored against each other, we were able to predict what was most likely to be the correct score based on both team’s scoring averages in qualifying so far.
- Congratulations! If you made it this far you’re officially better at maths than that kid that used to bully you and stab you with the protractor. Get stuck into a 6-0 Irish win here: Desktop | Mobile