The good news is that the 3m Kerry National goes ahead on Wednesday – but the not so good news is that it could be a slog in a bog.
I’ll ride The Paparrazi Kid from among Willie Mullins’ five entries and he should handle the ground as he won on testing ground at Limerick in Christmas 2013.
He ran well when second to Shanahan’s Turn in the Galway Plate last month after a long break and should stay the 3m trip.
I wouldn’t say he’s particularly well handicapped but with a lot of these you’re guessing if they’ll handle the ground. He will and should be there or thereabouts at the finish.
Mouse Morris’s Rule the World looks a big danger. He was brought down when clipping heels in the dip at Galway and looked to be more unlucky than Shanpallis (who was hampered) and I’d fancy the former to come out on top and looks like one we’ve all got to beat.
Alelchi Inois missed the break at Galway and I could never get into a challenging position. That was his first run in a handicap but I think the track and trip will suit him at Listowel although a lot of his form is on better ground.
Heavy ground could also rule out Ravished, Rogue Angel and last year’s winner Your Busy – although previous winners have a good record of going back-to-back in this race (Alfa Beat 2010/11,& Ponmeoath 2007/08).
Lots of Memories had good form as a novice but lost his way a little since then. His run behind Waaheb and Perfect Gentleman in a 3m hurdle at Roscommon was an improvement though.
If I had to pick a lively outsider at the foot of the weights it would be Urano. He’s a nice weight on his back, should see out the trip for Paul Townend and won a beginners chase in heavy ground at Cork at the turn of the year.