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The Capital One Cup: A 16/1 treble to light up the Third Round and pay for a midweek take-away

Who doesn't love pizza on a Wednesday night? We're banking on three Premier League teams to deliver the goods against lower league opposition in the Capital One Cup

by Josh Powell | September 22, 2015

The Capital One Cup can often prove a punting minefield for football folk trying to have a little wager to brighten up the week. Players are dropped or rested as some managers disregard the cup as a minor inconvenience to their league preparation, while other gaffers bank on a cup run keeping them in a job and distracting trigger-happy owners from an otherwise disastrous reign.

So while trying to click a football accumulator can sometimes feel like trying to find a unicorn to ride bareback though Narnia, the Capital One Cup certainly doesn’t make the challenge any easier – despite some of the lop-sided fixtures between ‘giants’ and ‘minnows’.

One way to combat this might be to look back through the last couple of years, and in particular the trends in Third Round clashes. We’ve done just that, and plucked out a 16/1 treble that returns just over £85 off a cheeky £5 punt.

While the myth would be that matches where there is a greater gulf in class results in more goals, the below image shows that in fact your best bet for backing goals or both teams to score would actually be in matches where there is just one tier separating the two sides.

Capital-Gains---League-Cup-Third-Round

With that in mind our treble is as follows:

  • Crystal Palace to beat Charlton and both teams to score ()
  • Southampton to beat MK Dons and over 2.5 goals in the match ()
  • Manchester United to beat Ipswich and over 2.5 goals in the match ()

Find out why we fancied these three results below:

Crystal Palace v Charlton (Wednesday, 7.45pm)

Both teams have found the net in four of Crystal Palace’s six games this year (Manchester City and Tottenham are the only teams to keep Alan Pardew’s side out) while Charlton have both scored and conceded in five of their eight clashes this season. Both teams know how to find the net, but with just two clean sheets between them in 14 games, they both have their defensive frailties as well. That being said, the Eagles have looked far more convincing than Charlton this season, with the Addicks winless in their last four Championship games. Charlton can give the travelling fans something to cheer, but we’re backing Crystal Palace to win and both teams to score at .

Alan Pardew

MK Dons v Southampton (Wednesday, 7.45pm)

Southampton have been wonderfully entertaining at times this year, and if you can give a very blinkered view to their two 0-0 draws this term, they’ve averaged 3.75 goals a game in the other four clashes. They’ve conceded eight goals in six games, as well as finding the onion bag seven times themselves. MK Dons have lost the last four matches on the spin – conceding two goals in each of those four games (against Birmingham City, Middlesbrough, Burnley and Leeds) and we fancy Southampton to add further misery on to the Dons. MK’s defensive weakness and Saints’ free-flowing football has us tempted by Southampton to beat MK Dons and over 2.5 goals in the match at .

Ronald-Koeman-HS-800

Manchester United v Ipswich (Wednesday, 8.00pm)

Manchester United’s first three league matches this year produced just two goals (one being an own goal) and there were uncomfortable groans around Old Trafford as Louis van Gaal’s style of play looked stifled at best. But then came the winds of change – their last three league games have thrown up 12 goals and the signing of Anthony Martial has got the red-half of Manchester giddier than a child on a bouncy castle. Five of Ipswich’s eight games this season have featured over 2.5 goals, and no matter what changes LVG makes, we fancy more of the same at Old Trafford. It’s a short enough price, but we like the look of Manchester United to beat Ipswich and over 2.5 goals in the match at .

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