Newcastle United have failed to score in six of their 11 games this season and only four teams have a worse attacking record in the top flight in this campaign. So on the face of it, it would seem strange that we’re so confident backing the Magpies to kick off our Saturday afternoon with an absolute goal-fest.
But it really isn’t.
Dig a little deeper and the most recent statistics suggest that Newcastle are due a barnstorming win – not too dissimilar to their 6-2 demolition of Norwich three weeks ago. While that may be dismissed by some as an anomaly – particularly when Steve McClaren’s men have followed it up with a 3-0 Tyne-Wear derby defeat away to Sunderland and a 0-0 stalemate at home to Stoke – it is in fact quite the opposite.
In the last three games Newcastle have had 47 attempts at goal. To put that into context Manchester United have had less than half that number (21) while the only sides who have had more efforts on goal in that time were Arsenal (51) and Leicester (52). The Gunners have scored eight goals in that time, Leicester have bagged six, but neither have drawn a blank like Newcastle have.
But that doesn’t appear to be down to inaccuracy – rather, it seems, some inspired goalkeeping. Newcastle have tested the keeper 27 times in their last three games – no team has produced more shots on target. That was rewarded with six goals against Norwich before Newcastle dominated against Sunderland and Stoke, but came up short. Jack Butland’s performance for the Potters was worthy of the Man of the Match award, and plenty of credit from Jermaine Jenas on Match of the Day. High praise indeed.
If it hadn’t been for some incredible goalkeeping and a lack of luck, Newcastle wouldn’t have drawn blanks on their previous two games and their odds this weekend would be decidedly slimmer. But there’s value to be had, and the Toon’s opponents give us more reason to believe it will all click for the Magpies this weekend.
Bournemouth’s only clean sheet this year was in their 2-0 win against hapless Sunderland, while the Cherries have conceded 24 goals this season – an average of 2.18 a game. Eddie Howe’s men have lost the last three games by two goals or more, and conceded 12 goals in that period. Aston Villa and Norwich are the only top flight teams in worse six-game from than Bournemouth, so the on a Newcastle win might be one to keep on side.
The on a Newcastle win and over 2.5 goals is tempting – the average number of goals in Bournemouth’s matches this year is 3.27, while Newcastle’s is 3.09. While we’re also keen on Newcastle to win and both teams to score at . Both teams have found the onion bag in 64 per cent of Bournemouth’s games this year, and of those games the Cherries have won just once.
Newcastle are to win by two goals or more, and if they find their shooting boots on Saturday afternoon, they’re a tempting to win by three goals or more. It may feel wrong backing a side with such a miserable scoring record to pop up and win an away game by three goals or more, but the stats suggest the Toon are due to dish out a tonking – and Bournemouth could be on the receiving end.
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