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Leicester v Man City: Despite everything they’ve done the Foxes are still 3/1 to win at home

by Rob Dore | December 28, 2015

Given the choice would you choose a BMW M3 or a Toyota Corolla? Obviously you’re going to pick the BMW. It’s a simple choice.

Now what about if the Corolla is brand spanking new with all the modern extras and in your favourite colour. Whereas the BMW is old, the turbo sounds like it’s about to blow, the tires are nearly bald and a tramp has been using the backseat as a bedroom/bathroom?

Some people will persevere and buy ear plugs, air fresheners and a St Christopher’s medal, and stick with the BMW. It’s all about the badge. It doesn’t matter how much more enjoyable the Toyota is to drive, its better acceleration, fuel economy, the lack of human faeces on the back seat. BMWs are inherently better, no matter what the circumstances.

Which is how Leicester City’s home game against Manchester City is being weighed and measured. Despite leading the league after 18 games, losing only two games along the way, Leicester are priced up asunderdogs to win at home.

In fairness they are playing a City who have the 12th best away record in the league this season. They’re also without a win in their last five away games, losing three, and they have managed to score just two goals over those five games.

Manuel Pellegrini

Manuel Pellegrini’s side have scored just eight away goals in the league and have failed to score in three of their last four away games. His top goalscorer is Sergio Aguero who has seven league goals, a total which has been heavily curtailed by his continuing frailty. Not a bad total but it pales in comparison to the exploits of Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez for the Foxes.

Leicester may be coming in to this game off a loss but that was their first defeat in ten league games. They’re unbeaten in their last four home games, winning three, and have the fourth best home record in the league so far this season.

  • Leicester have won three of their last six home games in all competitions by 2-1 () and have won five of seven by exactly one goal().

 

 

Jamie-Vardy-Leicester

Jamie Vardy’s goalscoring feats, leading the league with fifteen goals, have been heavily highlighted thanks to scoring in eleven straight games and being English. Riyad Mahrez hasn’t been ignored per se but he has been heavily overshadowed by his team-mate despite having thirteen goals of his own.

The Foxes are also ahead when it comes to creating chances. Mahrez has eight assists, Vardy has seven, Marc Albrighton is tied for fifth with six assists and Danny Drinkwater makes it in to the top twenty with four more.

David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne are City’s best performers with 6 assists a piece. Not bad totals but not the kind of numbers which warrant Leicester being such heavy underdogs.

This isn’t a total Leicester love-in though. The Foxes haven’t beaten Manchester City at home since 1988 when they were both in the old Second Division, now known as the Championship. That’s a run of nine games of which they’ve lost five and drawn four. Only three of these games have been within the last five years.

City were successful at the King Power Stadium last season thanks to a Frank Lampard strike. They won 3-1 there in the Capital Cup in December of 2013 with a brace from Edin Dzeko and one from Aleksandr Kolarov. Then in 2011 they drew 2-2 in the FA Cup before winning the replay 4-2 at the Etihad Stadium. James Milner and Carlos Tevez provided the goals in the 2-2 draw. Only one of the five City goalscorers mentioned are still at the club if that means anything and he’s a full-back.

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