Everton and Chelsea are both in FA Cup action on the TV this Sunday, and although both top flight sides are having to travel, the odds suggest that lower league opposition in the shape of Carlisle and MK Dons respectively, shouldn’t cause either side many problems. With Everton at and Chelsea at , the double works out a shade under Even money, and plenty of punters will see that punt as a perfect opportunity to double their dough on a lazy Sunday afternoon.
But what if you prefer a bit less risk for a potentially bigger reward?
Carlisle are only three points off a promotion place in League Two, but their chances of progressing to the next round of the FA Cup look bleaker than Adam Sandler’s recent movie career.
- In the last four years Premier League sides have a 58 per cent win rate against lower league opposition in the fourth round of the FA Cup
Since this stage of the competition in 2012 a top flight side has had to travel to a League Two side just twice. Manchester United left Cambridge with a 0-0 draw last year, while Hull beat Southend 2-0 at Roots Hall in 2014. The Toffees have won six games this season, and four of these victories have been by two or more goals. Roberto Martinez’s side are winless in four in all competitions, but they have only failed to score once in the last 14 league games – and that was away to Manchester City. They should find the net at the Sheepmount Athletics Stadium, and Everton to win by two goals is a bet.
We’re going to double that up with Chelsea to beat MK Dons by exactly one goal at . The double pays out 14/1 and the stats look good for Guus Hiddink’s team as well.
- Premier League teams have had travel to Championship teams 15 times in the fourth round in the last four years. They have won 10 of those fixtures, and 70 per cent of those wins have been by just a single goal
Despite languishing in mid-table, Chelsea are now unbeaten in eight games in all competitions while it’s a far sadder tale for MK Dons. Despite being able to claim the most roundabouts per square mile in the entire world, the Dons have already lost 16 games in the Championship this season and sit just two points away from the dreaded drop zone. They’ve also lost 44 per cent of those league games by a single goal and Chelsea can also pick up a victory by the slimmest of margins on Sunday at .
But if you’re tempted by even more of a gamble, this 65/1 punt – a bet that returns £300 off a fiver – might just catch your eye.
Carlisle have scored in 85 per cent of their home league games this season, while also conceding in 85 per cent of them. Overall both teams have found the net in 72 per cent of the Cumbrians’ league games and this could be a familiar story on Sunday. Everton’s defensive frailties have been on display as they’ve conceded eight goals in their last three games, and with that in mind The Toffees to win by a 3-1 scoreline at has us tempted.
Over in Milton Keynes, Chelsea’s defense has been considerably tighter. The Pensioners have kept a clean sheet in four of their last six games, while MK Dons have failed to score in 43 per cent of their Championship games this campaign. Chelsea to win by a 1-0 scoreline at looks like a wise, if slightly entertaining bet for Sunday.
Double the two scores up and you get a 65/1 punt backed up by a few key stats that offers you a little more bang for your buck. The win-draw-win double might be the safer bet at Evens, but if you’re a punter who likes a bit more spice with your burger the correct score double can make your Sunday.
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